In a typical year, seasonal flu kills about 36,000 people — nearly all of them older than 65 and many with underlying health problems. But that's not the way the H1N1 swine flu will look this year. It strikes hardest at children and young adults, who have none of the immunity to the strain that older people apparently have. And though only a fraction of 1% of sufferers is likely to get seriously ill, almost a third of those who die may be otherwise healthy and robust.
Such an outcome, says Anthony Fauci, the federal government's top infectious disease expert, is "almost unheard of." Fauci told USA TODAY's editorial board this week that he has been dealing with infectious diseases for decades, "and I've never seen, in seasonal flu, a normal, robust healthy person die from influenza."
Yet, that tragic scenario is already playing out around the nation with swine flu. H1N1 influenza has killed 28 pregnant women and 60 children since April, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Officials don't know why some otherwise healthy people die from H1N1, and they won't predict how many more might. But the trends suggest that thousands of young lives are at stake.
This picture, based not on conjecture but on science and observation, is not meant to frighten. It is meant as a sobering counter to those who apparently have no use for science, government or vaccines and are warning people to forgo protection against a very real threat.
Typical of the skeptics is political pundit Bill Maher, who tweeted this sage advice to thousands of Twitter followers last month: "If u get a swine flu shot ur an idiot."
As the H1N1 vaccine is about to become widely available, the saddest thing is that many people seem to be listening to the Mahers of the world. A University of Michigan poll in August found that only 40% of parents planned to get the H1N1 shot for their children. Some parents are even holding ill-advised "flu parties" to expose their children to H1N1 — a potentially fatal disease.
Some of the antipathy to the shots no doubt dates to the 1976 swine flu outbreak at Fort Dix, N.J., which caused one death and sent the government into overdrive down a tragic path. President Ford pledged to vaccinate everyone in the USA against an expected epidemic. But the flu never escaped Fort Dix. More than 500 of the 45 million people vaccinated got a rare neurological illness, Guillain-Barré. Dozens died.
Whether that was related to the vaccine is still unclear. But the program, quickly suspended, left many Americans with a fear of vaccines. Little wonder. The episode involved all risk and no benefit, because the flu turned out to be no threat.
That is clearly not the case today. Around the world, H1N1 has sickened millions, and 4,100 deaths have been reported. In the USA, since Aug. 30, more than 16,000 people have been hospitalized and nearly 1,400 have died from H1N1 or seasonal flu. The benefits of the vaccine, which authorities say is as safe as the seasonal flu shot, far outweigh any risk of side effects.
The decision whether to get it, for yourself or your children, should be driven by facts and science, not advice from people who play doctors on TV or the Internet.
P.S. Boost your immune system by taking Vitamin C rich foods and fruits.
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